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. 1999 Sep 28;96(20):11549-53.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.96.20.11549.

V体育ios版 - A simple relationship between viral load and survival time in HIV-1 infection

R A Arnaout  1 , A L Lloyd, T R O'Brien, J J Goedert, J M Leonard, M A Nowak
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A simple relationship between viral load and survival time in HIV-1 infection (V体育ios版)

"V体育ios版" R A Arnaout et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

"VSports app下载" Abstract

Despite important recent insights into the short-term dynamics of HIV-1 infection, our understanding of the long-term pathogenesis of AIDS remains unclear. Using an approach that places rapid progressors, typical progressors, and nonprogressors on a single clinical spectrum of disease progression, we quantitate the previously reported relationship between viral load and survival time. We introduce the concept of viral constant, present evidence that this quantity is conserved across patients, and explore the immunopathological implications of this finding. We conclude with a quantitative approach for assessing the benefits of a given regime of antiviral therapy VSports手机版. .

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Figures (VSports最新版本)

Figure 1
Figure 1
CD4+ cell counts and viral load measurements. CD4+ cell declines and viral load measurements for representative patients (a) 056 and (b) 042. For simplicity, the predicted survival time, tp, is taken as the time at which the CD4+ cell count falls to zero. Patient 042 (b) was one of six patients who experienced a statistically significant exponential increase in viral load; however, our method of calculating the average viral load, v̄, makes no assumptions about the trend viral load follows over time, provided viral load data points are taken at roughly equal intervals. Viral constants are calculated as in Table 1. ta, actual survival time.
Figure 2
Figure 2
A simple relationship between viral load and survival time. Viral load and survival time can be described by a simple phenomenological relationship (a) that explains nearly 75% of the observed variation; most of the remaining variation can be explained by error associated with seroconversion date estimation (±1 year for this group). Underlining the importance of accurate seroconversion date estimation, relaxing selection criteria to include patients seropositive at the start of the study (b) resulted in a much looser fit; however, it changed neither C nor k and the relationship remained highly significant. This relationship may reflect the underlying dynamics of CD4+ cell decline, because using CD4+ cell decline to predict survival time (c) gives results similar to those seen in a and b. Better estimation of seroconversion dates is required to further evaluate this possibility.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Viral constant is relatively constant from patient to patient. There is some variability around the value of the viral constant, most likely because of imprecise estimation of seroconversion dates. Interestingly, the only patient whose viral constant was below 1,000 (patient 19) was also the only patient whose viral load measurements were not roughly evenly spaced, making calculation of v̄ less accurate (see main text). Hence frequency of measurements is also important for accurate viral constant estimation.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Viral load, CD4+ cell count, and survival time. For a given seroconversion CD4+ cell count, higher viral load is associated with faster decline and shorter predicted survival time (a); but counterintuitively, for a given viral load, higher seroconversion CD4+ cell count does not change predicted survival time (b). The dependence on seroconversion CD4+ cell count can be overlooked if large groups of patients are studied instead of individuals.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Quantitating the effect of therapy. Treatment begun early is more beneficial than treatment begun late, consistent with “hit early, hit hard” dogma (a); also, even moderate (5- to 10-fold) long-term reduction of viral load can be more beneficial than more potent (100- to 10,000-fold) but transient treatment (b). Figure is for a patient with pretreatment v̄ = 20,000 copies HIV-1 RNA/ml; fold reduction is calculated as v̄/v̄T (see main text). Curves are obtained from the exact expression t* = formula image, where R = (v̄/v̄T) − 1, of which Eq. 4 is a series approximation.
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